DETROIT (AP) Making electric vehicles and their batteries is a dirty process that uses a lot of energy. But a new study says that EVs quickly make up for that with less overall emissions through two years of use than a gas-powered vehicle.
The study also estimated that gas-powered vehicles cause at least twice as much environmental damage over their lifetimes as EVs, and said the benefits of EVs can be expected to increase in coming decades as clean sources of power, such as solar and wind, are brought onto the grid .
The work by researchers from Northern Arizona University and Duke University, published Wednesday in the journal PLOS Climate , offers insight into a transportation sector that makes up a big part of U.S. emissions. It also comes as some EV skeptics have raised concerns about whether the environmental impact of battery production, including mining , makes it worthwhile to switch to electric.
While there is a bigger carbon footprint in the very short term because of the manufacturing process in creating the batteries for electric vehicles, very quickly you come out ahead in CO2 emissions by year three and then for all of the rest of the vehicle lifetime, youre far ahead and so cumulatively much lower carbon footprint, said Drew Shindell, an earth science professor at Duke University and study co-author.
What the researchers examined
The researchers evaluated several harmful air pollutants monitored by the Environmental Protection Agency, as well as emissions data, to compare the relative impact over time of EVs and internal combustion engines on air quality and climate change.
Their analysis said that EVs produce 30% higher carbon dioxide emissions than gasoline vehicles in their first two years. That can be attributed to the energy-intensive production and manufacturing processes involved in mining lithium for EV batteries.
They also sought to account for how the U.S. energy system might develop in coming years, assuming growth in clean energy. And they modeled four different scenarios for EV adoption, ranging from the lowest a 31% share of vehicle sales to the highest, 75% of sales, by 2050. (EV sales accounted for about 8% of new vehicle sales in the U.S. in 2024.)
The researchers said the average of those four models found that for each additional kilowatt hour of lithium-ion battery output, carbon dioxide emissions drop by an average of 220 kilograms (485 pounds) in 2030, and another 127 kilograms (280 pounds) in 2050.
The consistent decrease in CO2 emissions from EVs is not only driven by the on-road vehicles, but also reduction that has been brought due to electricity production, said lead author Pankaj Sadavarte, a postdoctoral researcher at Northern Arizona University.
Greg Keoleian, a University of Michigan professor of sustainable systems who wasnt involved in the research, called it a valuable study that echoes other findings and confirms the environmental and economic benefits of EVs.
Accelerating the adoption of battery electric vehicles is a key strategy for decarbonizing the transportation sector which will reduce future damages and costs of climate change, he said.
Researchers take optimistic view of the grids future
Shindell, the Duke researcher, said the grid will evolve to have more solar and wind power.
When you add a bunch of electric vehicles, nobodys going to build new coal-fired power plants to run these things because coal is really expensive compared to renewables, he said. So the grid just overall becomes much cleaner in both the terms of carbon emissions for climate change, and for air pollution.
Outside experts agreed as long as the policy landscape supports it. That hasnt been the case under President Donald Trump , who has worked to boost fossil fuels and restrain solar and wind power development.
The great news is the rest of the world isnt slowing down in terms of its embrace of this technology, said Ellen Kennedy, principal for carbon-free transportation at RMI, a clean energy nonprofit. As for the U.S., she said, I think its important to keep in mind states and local governments, theres a lot thats happening on those fronts.
One thing the study didnt address was recycling or disposal of batteries at the end of their life. Kennedy said battery recycling will improve, helping to address one of the environmental impacts of their production.
A challenging time for EVs in the United States
The study comes at a notable time given the challenges that EVs face in the U.S.
EVs have seen more interest in recent years as an alternative to gas-powered cars and trucks particularly as they become more affordable and charging infrastructure becomes more available.
But growth has slowed amid shifting federal policy toward EVs and an industry step back from ambitious EV production promises.
Former President Joe Biden set a target for 50% of all new vehicle sales in the U.S. to be electric by 2030. But Trump reversed that policy , and Congress has terminated federal tax credits for an EV purchase. The administration has also targeted vehicle pollution rules that would encourage greater uptake of EVs in the U.S., and the president has attempted to halt a nationwide EV charging buildout .
The study is important to show how really misguided the current administrations policies are, Shindell said. If we want to protect us from climate change and from the very clear and local damage from poor air quality, this is a really clear way to do it: Incentivize the switch from internal combustion engines to EVs.
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Alexa St. John is an Associated Press climate reporter. Follow her on X: @alexa_stjohn . Reach her at ast.john@ap.org .
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The Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find APs standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org .
底特律（美联社）——制造电动汽车及其电池是一个高能耗、高污染的过程。但一项新研究表明，电动汽车在使用两年后，其总体排放量将迅速低于燃油汽车，从而弥补这一不足。
该研究还估算，燃油车在整个生命周期中对环境造成的破坏至少是电动车的两倍，并指出随着太阳能和风能等清洁能源并入电网，未来几十年电动车的环保效益有望进一步提升。
由北亚利桑那大学和杜克大学研究人员开展的一项研究于周三发表在《PLOS气候》期刊上，该研究深入剖析了占美国排放量很大比重的交通运输领域。与此同时，一些对电动汽车持怀疑态度的人士提出质疑，认为电池生产（包括采矿）对环境的影响可能会抵消转向电动汽车的益处。
杜克大学地球科学教授、研究报告合著者德鲁·辛德尔（Drew Shindell）表示：“尽管电动汽车电池制造过程会在短期内产生更大的碳足迹，但到第三年时，其二氧化碳排放量就会迅速低于传统汽车，并在车辆整个剩余使用寿命期间保持显著优势，因此累计碳足迹要低得多。”
研究人员的研究内容
研究人员评估了美国环境保护署监测的多种有害空气污染物及排放数据，以比较电动汽车与内燃机汽车对空气质量和气候变化的长期相对影响。
分析指出，电动汽车在使用头两年产生的二氧化碳排放量比汽油车高出30%。这主要归因于电动汽车电池所需的锂矿开采过程中涉及的能源密集型生产和制造工艺。
研究人员还试图预测未来几年美国能源体系在清洁能源增长背景下的可能发展路径。他们针对电动汽车的普及率建立了四种不同的情景模型：到2050年，最低情景下电动汽车将占汽车销量的31%，而最高情景下这一比例将达到75%。（2024年美国电动汽车销量约占新车销量的8%。）
研究人员表示，根据这四个模型的平均值测算，每增加一千瓦时的锂离子电池产量，2030年二氧化碳排放量平均减少220千克（485磅），到2050年将再减少127千克（280磅）。
该研究的主要作者、北亚利桑那大学博士后研究员潘卡吉·萨达瓦特（Pankaj Sadavarte）表示：“电动汽车二氧化碳排放量的持续下降不仅源于上路车辆，还得益于电力生产环节的减排。”
密歇根大学可持续系统教授格雷格·科莱昂（Greg Keoleian）虽未参与此项研究，但他称其为一项“有价值的研究”，该研究与其他发现相呼应，并“证实了电动汽车的环境与经济效益”。
他表示：“加快普及纯电动汽车是交通领域脱碳的关键策略，这将减少气候变化带来的未来损害和成本。”
研究人员对电网未来持乐观态度
杜克大学研究员辛德尔表示，电网将逐步转型，增加太阳能和风能的比重。
他表示：“即便增加大量电动汽车，也不会有人为此新建燃煤电厂，因为与可再生能源相比，煤炭成本实在太高。因此从气候变化相关的碳排放和空气污染两方面来看，整个电网都会变得更加清洁。”
外部专家一致认为——只要政策环境支持即可。但在唐纳德·特朗普总统任期内情况并非如此，他致力于推动化石燃料发展，同时抑制太阳能和风能开发。
非营利清洁能源组织RMI的无碳交通项目负责人埃伦·肯尼迪（Ellen Kennedy）表示：“好消息是，世界其他地区在接纳这项技术方面并未放缓步伐。”谈及美国时，她指出：“我认为必须关注各州和地方政府层面的动态，这些领域正在发生许多重要进展。”
该研究未涉及电池寿命终结后的回收或处理问题。肯尼迪表示，电池回收技术将不断完善，有助于缓解电池生产对环境造成的部分影响。
美国电动汽车行业面临严峻挑战
鉴于电动汽车在美国面临的诸多挑战，这项研究的发布恰逢其时。
近年来，电动汽车作为燃油汽车和卡车的替代品受到了更多关注，尤其是随着其价格变得更加亲民、充电基础设施日益完善。
但随着联邦政府对电动汽车政策的转变，以及整个行业从雄心勃勃的电动汽车生产承诺中退却，增长已经放缓。
美国前总统乔·拜登曾设定目标，要求到2030年全美50%的新车销售为电动汽车。但特朗普推翻了这一政策，国会也终止了针对购买电动车的联邦税收抵免。现政府还针对鼓励电动车普及的汽车排放法规采取行动，总统甚至试图叫停全国范围内的电动车充电基础设施建设。
辛德尔表示："这项研究的重要性在于，它揭示了当前政府政策存在严重误导性。若想保护人类免受气候变化及空气质量恶化带来的显著区域性危害，有一个非常明确的解决方案：鼓励从内燃机汽车向电动汽车转型。"
亚历克莎·圣约翰（Alexa St. John）是美联社气候领域记者。您可以在X平台（原推特）关注她的账号@alexa_stjohn，或通过邮箱ast.john@ap.org与她联系。
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