S&P Global purchasing managers index rises to one-year high amid pick-up in consumer spending
UK factories staged a recovery in October after the reopening of Jaguar Land Rover operations and a pick-up in consumer spending, according to a closely watched survey of the manufacturing sector.
The S&P Global purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to a one-year high as business optimism improved and factory output expanded.
Jaguar Land Rover, Britains biggest carmaker, supported the recovery after it began reopening facilities hit by a cyber-attack that some experts estimated cost the UK economy about 051.9bn .
Manufacturers were able to shake off some of the uncertainty from Donald Trumps tariffs. Consumers also increased spending on new cars, improving the outlook for the makers of vital industrial components.
S&P Global said the PMI rose to 49.7 in October from 46.2 in September, where a figure above 50 indicates expansion. A sub-index measuring factory output jumped sharply to 51.6 from 45.7 in September, signalling a return to growth.
Martin Beck, the chief economist at the consultants WPI Strategy, said there were reasons to be optimistic about a recovery gathering pace.
Rising real wages should underpin domestic demand for goods, while government incentives for green technologies and battery production could boost investment, he added.
The recent depreciation of sterling against the dollar and euro also improves UK export competitiveness. And the governments decision to increase the discount on electricity network charges for energy-intensive industries offers some relief on costs.
However, Mike Thornton, the head of industrials at the accountants RSM UK, said: While the uptick in manufacturing activity in October shows a reverse on the downward trend seen in August and September, only time will tell if this is a temporary rebound in output rather than a sustained recovery.
Following Jaguar Land Rovers phased production restart in October, its likely that this has created a ripple effect throughout the supply chain, particularly as the shutdown impacted more than 5,000 middle-market businesses.
The UKs manufacturing sector has suffered a succession of blows since the Covid pandemic. Industry bodies have complained that a steep rise in gas and electricity costs, in addition to rising wages and higher employment taxes, have crippled many businesses.
The British Chambers of Commerce, the CBI and Make UK, the manufacturing lobby group, have called on the chancellor to give extra support to the manufacturing sector in the budget later this month.
Rob Dobson, a director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: There are concerns the forthcoming budget will exacerbate the lingering challenges created by last years budget, especially in relation the impact of national minimum wage and employer national insurance on costs, demand and production.
This means that business optimism remains below its long-run average despite rising to an eight-month high in October.
Manufacturers seem to be stuck in a holding pattern until the domestic policy and geopolitical backdrops exhibit greater clarity.
标普全球采购经理人指数因消费支出回升攀升至一年来新高
一项备受关注的制造业调查显示，随着捷豹路虎恢复运营以及消费者支出回升，英国工厂在10月份实现了复苏。
随着商业乐观情绪升温及工厂产出扩大，标普全球采购经理人指数（PMI）攀升至一年来最高水平。
英国最大汽车制造商捷豹路虎在遭受网络攻击后开始逐步恢复设施运营，此举助力了经济复苏。据专家估算，此次网络攻击给英国经济造成了约19亿英镑的损失。
制造商得以部分摆脱唐纳德·特朗普关税政策带来的不确定性。消费者也增加了对新车的消费，这为重要工业零部件制造商改善了前景。
标普全球（S&P Global）公布数据显示，10月采购经理人指数（PMI）从9月的46.2升至49.7，数值高于50表明经济处于扩张状态。其中衡量工厂产出的分项指数从9月的45.7大幅跃升至51.6，标志着生产活动重回增长轨道。
咨询公司WPI Strategy首席经济学家马丁·贝克（Martin Beck）表示，有理由对经济复苏步伐加快持乐观态度。
他补充道：“实际工资的上涨将支撑国内商品需求，而政府对绿色技术和电池生产的激励措施可能会促进投资。”
近期英镑对美元和欧元的贬值也提升了英国出口的竞争力。此外，政府决定提高对能源密集型产业的电网费用折扣，这在一定程度上缓解了成本压力。
然而，英国RSM会计师事务所工业部门主管迈克·桑顿（Mike Thornton）表示：“尽管10月份制造业活动的上升扭转了8月和9月的下滑趋势，但这究竟是产量的暂时反弹还是持续复苏，只有时间才能给出答案。”
捷豹路虎于10月分阶段恢复生产后，这一举措很可能在整个供应链中产生了连锁反应，尤其是此前停产影响了逾5000家中型企业。
自新冠疫情暴发以来，英国制造业接连遭受重创。行业机构抱怨称，天然气和电力成本飙升，加之工资上涨和就业税增加，已使许多企业陷入困境。
英国商会、英国工业联合会（CBI）以及制造业游说团体Make UK共同呼吁财政大臣在本月晚些时候公布的预算案中为制造业提供额外支持。
标普全球市场财智（S&P Global Market Intelligence）董事罗布·多布森（Rob Dobson）表示：“人们担忧即将出台的预算案会加剧去年预算遗留的挑战，尤其是国民最低工资和雇主国民保险对成本、需求及生产造成的影响。”
这意味着，尽管10月份商业乐观情绪攀升至八个月来的高点，但仍低于长期平均水平。
制造商似乎陷入了观望状态，直到国内政策和地缘政治背景变得更加明朗。
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