London predicted to be the first UK city to go diesel-free, largely because of the ultra-low emission zone
Battery electric cars are poised to overtake diesels on Great Britains roads by 2030, according to analysis that suggests London will be the first UK city to go diesel-free.
The number of diesel cars on Great Britains roads in June had fallen to 9.9m in June last year, 21% below its peak of 12.4m vehicles, according to analysis by New AutoMotive, a thinktank focused on the transition to electric cars. Electric car sales are still growing rapidly, albeit more slowly than manufacturers had expected .
However, the transition to cleaner vans is lagging behind cars, and the number of diesel vans has continued to rise, to a record 4.4m.
The UK went through a dash for diesel cars in the 2000s as the government granted them cheaper tax rates. Diesel engines tend to be more efficient than petrol engines, burning less fuel and producing less carbon dioxide.
However, they also produce more nitrous oxides, which are harmful to health. In 2015 Volkswagen was found to have created software to cheat on emissions tests, kicking off the Dieselgate scandal , costing it alone 30bn (0526bn) around the world in fines, compensation and legal costs. Analysis this year suggested the extra emissions from cheat devices from Volkswagen and other carmakers were responsible for thousands of deaths and cases of asthma.
Sales of cars with diesel engines duly plummeted, to fewer than 100,000 in the first 11 months of 2025. However, it will take some time for the share of diesel cars on the road to diminish, as many cars bought during the peak years of diesels are only now being scrapped.
Battery electric cars made up only 4% of the cars on UK roads last year, compared with 32% diesels and 58% that use petrol, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), a lobby group. The other 6% were hybrids, which mostly combine a smaller battery with a petrol engine.
Nevertheless, the number of diesels should drop as older cars are scrapped, delivering benefits for towns and cities where particulates tend to be concentrated. That will also have a knock-on effect for filling stations, leading to many withdrawing diesel supplies.
London is expected to be the first place in the UK where no diesel cars or vans are registered, largely because of the ultra-low emission zone (Ulez) , which applies charges for more polluting non-compliant cars. Diesel numbers are also dropping rapidly in the central belt of Scotland, which contains Edinburgh and Glasgow, both of which have low-emission zones.
Ending the use of diesel is essential to clean up Britains choking cities, said Ben Nelmes, the chief executive of New AutoMotive. The UK is now rolling out electric cars at a rapid pace, and this is great news for everyone that enjoys clean air, quieter streets and really cheap running costs.
The UK imports billions of pounds of diesel every year, and we have been completely reliant on other countries to feed our thirst. Thankfully, were switching to electric cars at a rapid rate, and that will make the country cleaner and wealthier.
However, the analysis found that people in cities appeared to be selling their diesels to people in more rural areas.
The report found that, while the number of diesel vans has risen over the past decade, the peak of new diesel van sales probably happened before the pandemic, meaning the numbers on roads will eventually fall.
Matt Finch, an environmental policy expert who co-wrote the report, said the world was leaving the diesel age. He said: No one is denying diesel hasnt been useful, but it has had its day.
伦敦预计将成为英国首个实现无柴油化的城市，这主要归功于超低排放区的设立。
分析显示，到2030年，英国道路上电动汽车的数量将超过柴油车，而伦敦将成为英国首个淘汰柴油车的城市。
专注于电动汽车转型的智库New AutoMotive分析显示，去年6月英国道路上的柴油车数量已降至990万辆，较1240万辆的峰值下降了21%。电动汽车销量仍在快速增长，尽管增速低于制造商预期。
然而，厢式货车向清洁能源转型的步伐落后于轿车，柴油厢式货车的数量持续攀升，目前已达到创纪录的440万辆。
21世纪初，英国曾掀起一阵柴油车热潮，因为政府为其提供了更低的税率。柴油发动机通常比汽油发动机更高效，油耗更低，二氧化碳排放量也更少。
然而，它们也会产生更多有害健康的氮氧化物。2015年，大众汽车被曝开发了用于排放测试作弊的软件，由此引发“柴油门”丑闻，仅罚款、赔偿和法律费用就使该公司在全球范围内损失了300亿欧元（约合260亿英镑）。今年有分析指出，大众及其他汽车制造商的作弊装置导致的额外排放，造成了数千人死亡和哮喘病例。
柴油发动机汽车的销量在2025年前11个月大幅下滑，降至不足10万辆。然而，由于许多在柴油车鼎盛时期购买的车辆现在才逐渐报废，道路上柴油车的占比需要一段时间才会减少。
英国汽车制造商和贸易商协会（SMMT）数据显示，去年英国道路上仅有4%的汽车为纯电动汽车，而柴油车和汽油车占比分别为32%和58%。其余6%为混合动力车，这类车型通常配备小型电池与汽油发动机组合驱动。
尽管如此，随着老旧车辆逐步淘汰，柴油车数量将会减少，这对颗粒物污染集中的城镇大有裨益。此举还将对加油站产生连锁反应，导致许多站点停止供应柴油。
伦敦有望成为英国首个不再登记柴油轿车或货车的地区，这主要归功于超低排放区（Ulez）政策——该政策对污染更严重的不合规车辆征收费用。在苏格兰中部地区（包含爱丁堡和格拉斯哥这两个设有低排放区的城市），柴油车数量也正在快速下降。
“停止使用柴油车对于净化英国雾霾严重的城市至关重要，”新能源汽车公司首席执行官本·内尔姆斯表示，“英国目前正在快速推广电动汽车，这对于所有渴望呼吸清洁空气、享受宁静街道和极低用车成本的人来说都是个好消息。”
英国每年进口价值数十亿英镑的柴油，长期以来完全依赖他国满足自身需求。值得庆幸的是，我们正快速转向电动汽车的普及，这将使国家变得更清洁、更富裕。
然而分析发现，城市居民似乎正将他们的柴油车转售给农村地区的人群。
报告指出，尽管过去十年间柴油货车数量有所增加，但新柴油货车的销售高峰可能出现在疫情之前，这意味着道路上的柴油货车数量最终将会下降。
参与撰写该报告的环境政策专家马特·芬奇表示，世界正在“告别柴油时代”。他说：“没有人否认柴油曾经发挥过作用，但它的时代已经过去了。”
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